Senators went into a recess skeptical over whether they could agree to legislation repealing and replacing ObamaCare.
They will return on Monday more doubtful than ever.
Sen. Richard BurrRichard BurrSenate returns more pessimistic than ever on healthcare Week ahead: Senate gets back to work on healthcare after recess Pence presses Congress to pass healthcare by end of summer MORE (R-N.C.), one of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellSenate returns more pessimistic than ever on healthcare GOP senator: Tax reform more likely to come before ObamaCare repeal Senators want governors involved in health talks MORE’s (R-Ky.) most loyal allies, said Thursday it’s “unlikely” the GOP will get a healthcare deal.
“I don’t see a comprehensive healthcare plan this year,” he told a local news station.
Senate Republicans hoped to have a draft bill this week, but it now looks like that will at best by an outline of parameters.
A Senate Republican aide said it’s too early to begin drafting legislation that can come to the floor in the next few weeks.
“Parameters are more likely,” said the aide, ho explained that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) wants to keep the details held closely so the legislation doesn’t get picked apart before lawmakers have a chance to consider it carefully.
“The last thing we want to do is litigate this in the press,” the aide said. “We want to discuss parameters and concepts without releasing a draft.”
“Maybe they can start talking to members about specific product next week but I would not be surprised if we don’t,” said another Senate GOP aide.
More unhelpful news came in the form of a Kaiser Family Foundation poll underscoring how unpopular the bill approved by the House is.
It found that three-quarters of Americans surveyed think the House bill does not fulfill President Trump’s promises on healthcare.
A full 82 percent said federal funding for ObamaCare’s expansion of Medicaid should be continued, an issue that deeply divides the Senate GOP. The House bill ends the ObamaCare funds in 2020.
Yet another factor for Republicans is Trump’s approval rating, which has fallen to its lowest point with Republicans since he took office in the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.
Republicans already had sought to lower expectations.
McConnell conceded last week that, “I don’t know how we get to 50 [votes] at the moment.”
He sounded more optimistic about passing major tax reform legislation, rating its chances “pretty good.”
Republicans control 52 seats and can afford only two defections within their ranks. Vice President Pence could cast the deciding vote in case of a 50-50 tie.
The Senate GOP hasn’t given up hope on healthcare, and faces tremendous pressure from the White House and House Republicans to hold a vote.
Republicans for years have promised to repeal ObamaCare, so failure would be a major blow. They also face pressure to finish their work on healthcare because of the tax reform push.
The GOP is using special budgetary rules to prevent Democrats from filibustering legislation on tax reform and healthcare.
Republicans can’t move to tax reform until the healthcare debate is finished because once they pass a new budget resolution that would allow them to move tax legislation with 51 votes, they will lose the vehicle set up to enable a healthcare bill circumvent a Democratic filibuster.
Members of a special 13-member working group have heard very little about the drafting efforts that were supposed to take place over the recess.
Senate Budget Committee Chairman Mike EnziMike EnziSenate returns more pessimistic than ever on healthcare Trump’s impatience with GOP grows GOP senator Enzi recovering from gallbladder surgery MORE (R-Wyo.) was to provide the framework in consultation with GOP leaders and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin HatchOrrin HatchSenate returns more pessimistic than ever on healthcare Why higher education is in need of regulatory relief White House to fill National Economic Council post with congressional staffer MORE (R-Utah).
A major sticking point in the Senate is Medicaid. The House bill would cut nearly $900 billion from the program and cap the federal contribution for expanded enrollment in that program by 2020.
Several Republican governors from Medicaid expansion states led by Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) and Rick Snyder (Mich.) earlier this year came out against the House bill, warning it failed to provide adequate resources.
Sen. Rob PortmanRob PortmanSenate returns more pessimistic than ever on healthcare Majority of public wants to keep Medicaid expansion funds New Ohio GOP candidate shakes up Senate primary MORE (R-Ohio) says he wants a more gradual “glide path” for capping the expansion, an idea not popular with conservatives.
Twenty Republican senators, including Portman, represent states that opted to expand Medicaid and many of them, worry that cutting federal funding will cause significant budget problems at home.
But another group of GOP governors, primarily from states that opted out of the Medicaid expansion, want to end federal support for the expansion.
Senators are divided as well over proposals to limit federal assistance for health insurance subsidies, which would hit older, low-income Americans disproportionately.
McConnell hasn’t set a deadline for passing the ObamaCare repeal and replace bill but he has indicated concern about the debate dragging on for months, which could imperil tax reform.
“We can’t take forever,” he told Bloomberg TV last month.
By raising doubts about the possibility of getting a deal that musters 51 votes, the GOP leader is putting pressure on his colleagues to either come together or move on before the August recess.
McConnell has told colleagues that the 13-member working group will put together and bill and that he will bring it to the floor for a vote, but he has stopped short of promising that it will pass — in contrast to Speaker Paul RyanPaul RyanSenate returns more pessimistic than ever on healthcare Senators want governors involved in health talks Business moguls can learn from Trump: Winners never quit, quitters never win MORE (R-Wis.), who earlier this year guaranteed that the House bill would pass.
If the Senate bill fails on the floor, then McConnell is likely to declare the GOP conference has worked its will and move on.
Even as the House voted to narrowly pass the American Health Care Act early last month, there was already strong pessimism among Senate Republicans about the chances of putting together a comprehensive in the upper chamber.
A senior GOP senator at the time said the chances of getting 51 votes for legislation based on the House healthcare bill were less than 1 in 5.
When House Republicans debated healthcare reform earlier this year, some of their Senate colleagues said privately they thought it might be better if the legislation died in the lower chamber.
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